01/28 MARKET IN CONFIRMED RALLY
TODAY'S MARKET FACTS
- The Nasdaq was UP 3.6% and its VOLUME was UP 19%.
- The S&P 500 was UP 3.4% and the DJIA was UP 2.5%.
- The NYSE VOLUME was UP 31%.
- ACCUMULATION DAYS for all major indices.
RECENT MARKET ACTION
(New comments, changes & very important information highlighted in YELLOW
· 1/28 Wednesday - Big rises on all major indices on huge increases in volume were ACCUMULATION DAYS and signaled a CONFIRMED RALLY. Additional signals that confirmed the rally included :
o The indices and volume rises were strikingly above the minimum guidelines.
o Index volumes were well above the 50-day moving averages.
o Leading stocks broke out of bases
o Stock up versus down was a favorable 3:1 for the Nasdaq and 6:1 for the NYSE
o The three days since the 1/23 start of this attempted rally were up.
o TECHNICAL NOTE:
IBD called Wednesday the fourth day of an attempted rally. That meant a new attempted rally had to start on last Friday. The past Follow-through day was nullified when the market went sideways for three weeks and finally fell on distribution. But the prior low of 11/21 was never undercut. I have asked Ken Shreve of IBD to clarify the "new rally" call but I suspect it has to do with the distribution days. Plus, if you step back and look at the indices charts, the last four days really did appear to be a new attempted rally. I'll let you know the response from Ken.
· 1/27 Tuesday - All major indices were up 1%+ with lighter volume
· 1/26 Monday - Mixed returns with the Nasdaq and S&P500 up and DJIA down. Lighter volume may have been from early exit of exhausted traders.
· 1/23 Friday - Mixed returns with the Nasdaq and S&P500 up and DJIA down. Lighter volume may have been from early exit of exhausted traders. Day one of a new attempted rally.
ACTIONS TO CONSIDER
· I don't know what the markets will do (sorry, no crystal ball) but I'm fairly sure there is a lot more poor financial news left to be revealed.
THESE STEPS WILL PUT MANY PEOPLE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE MARKET AND THAT'S FINE WITH ME. We haven't undercut the prior low, so we remain in an attempted rally - but I would lay big odds that it won't blossom into a rally without another drop first or a new president.
LOOKING FORWARD:
· I'm only buying stocks that meet ALL of my criteria - RS, EPS, Accumulation/Distribution. , etc PLUS breaking out of sound bases on 150% of average volume or more. NO COMPROMISES.
· Build a watch list of stock that are close to breaking out.
PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO:
· Pyramid into new stocks to ensure breakouts work - especially at the start of new rally.
o First purchase 50% of planned position.
o Wait for the stock to rise 2% with positive price-volume action and buy another 30%.
o Another 2% rise allows your to complete the position with the last 20%.
· BE SURE YOUR 8% STOPS ARE IN FOR ANY STOCKS YOU OWN or SHORT.
1/28/09