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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

01/28 MARKET IN CONFIRMED RALLY

TODAY'S MARKET FACTS

  • The Nasdaq was UP 3.6% and its VOLUME was UP 19%.
  • The S&P 500 was UP 3.4% and the DJIA was UP 2.5%.
  • The NYSE VOLUME was UP 31%.
  • ACCUMULATION DAYS for all major indices.

RECENT MARKET ACTION

(New comments, changes & very important information highlighted in YELLOW

· 1/28 Wednesday - Big rises on all major indices on huge increases in volume were ACCUMULATION DAYS and signaled a CONFIRMED RALLY. Additional signals that confirmed the rally included :

o The indices and volume rises were strikingly above the minimum guidelines.

o Index volumes were well above the 50-day moving averages.

o Leading stocks broke out of bases

o Stock up versus down was a favorable 3:1 for the Nasdaq and 6:1 for the NYSE

o The three days since the 1/23 start of this attempted rally were up.

o TECHNICAL NOTE: IBD called Wednesday the fourth day of an attempted rally. That meant a new attempted rally had to start on last Friday. The past Follow-through day was nullified when the market went sideways for three weeks and finally fell on distribution. But the prior low of 11/21 was never undercut. I have asked Ken Shreve of IBD to clarify the "new rally" call but I suspect it has to do with the distribution days. Plus, if you step back and look at the indices charts, the last four days really did appear to be a new attempted rally. I'll let you know the response from Ken.

· 1/27 Tuesday - All major indices were up 1%+ with lighter volume

· 1/26 Monday - Mixed returns with the Nasdaq and S&P500 up and DJIA down. Lighter volume may have been from early exit of exhausted traders.

· 1/23 Friday - Mixed returns with the Nasdaq and S&P500 up and DJIA down. Lighter volume may have been from early exit of exhausted traders. Day one of a new attempted rally.

ACTIONS TO CONSIDER

· I have nothing left in the market and am short in the QQQQs.

· If you have stocks that are winning - continue to hold them, but if not, consider the value of avoiding a potential big drop. You can always buy a good company back when it starts back up and earns your respect again.

· I don't know what the markets will do (sorry, no crystal ball) but I'm fairly sure there is a lot more poor financial news left to be revealed.

THESE STEPS WILL PUT MANY PEOPLE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE MARKET AND THAT'S FINE WITH ME. We haven't undercut the prior low, so we remain in an attempted rally - but I would lay big odds that it won't blossom into a rally without another drop first or a new president.

LOOKING FORWARD:

· I'm only buying stocks that meet ALL of my criteria - RS, EPS, Accumulation/Distribution. , etc PLUS breaking out of sound bases on 150% of average volume or more. NO COMPROMISES.

· Build a watch list of stock that are close to breaking out.

PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO:

· Pyramid into new stocks to ensure breakouts work - especially at the start of new rally.

o First purchase 50% of planned position.

o Wait for the stock to rise 2% with positive price-volume action and buy another 30%.

o Another 2% rise allows your to complete the position with the last 20%.

· BE SURE YOUR 8% STOPS ARE IN FOR ANY STOCKS YOU OWN or SHORT.

1/28/09

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Saturday, December 20, 2008

This Entry is being edited it is NOT accurate!!!!!

Green Light: Uptrend Strong, Day 59 .

Best Investing Practices The largest gains are made at the beginning of an uptrend. HAVE THE COURAGE TO FOLLOW YOUR RULES.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day% Up Since Market Upturn (12/2/08)
Nasdaq156432+0.8% +14.5% -1.0%Neither +20.8%
S&P500887.88+0.3%+49.3%+34.0%Neither +19.8%
DJIA10,959+0.3%+49.3%+34.0%Neither +15.2%

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:
  • The economy continues to show signs of growth
  • The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day and 200 -day moving averages
  • The Fed Reserve hints at ending rate increases
  • The 10-day “Leading stock up-to-down” ratio is 1.9
  • The percent of A stocks is 15% of all stocks over $5.
  • The Nasdaq has an Accumulation rating of A-.
  • The S&P 500 & DJIA have Accumulation ratings of B+
Mixed indicators:
  • The Nasdaq has been UP on 7 of the last 10 days
  • There have been TWO 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20 for the NASDAQ
Downtrend indicators:
  • The interest rate yield curve is still inverted.

CONCLUSION:

  • Two Accumulation days in four days confirms the uptrend is moving again

WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Look for good stocks breaking out of good bases
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Consider:
  • Celadon (CLDN) , REO 13%, Sponsorship A.
  • C B Richard Ellis (CBG), ROE 26%, sponsorship B, may be 2nd stage base
  • Ceradyn (CRDN) ROE 26% sponsorship B, at 10-wk moving average; may be a buy point.
  • Neoware Systems(NWRE) ROE only 10%
  • Energy Conversion Devices(ENER)Near top of of right side of Cup with Handle. Look for formation of handle. In this market environment breakout at peak of right side could occur without formation of handle or formation may be shortened to less than ideal 2 weeks.

Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Accumulation Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 1 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 7 Up 3 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days Neutral indicator: 4, 5 or 6 up and down days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 1.9 Up/Down Ratio (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.1 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.0-1.3 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 30 up to 21 down, a 1.3 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 4
2 5
3 6

Past Market Direction Signals:

10/19/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/16/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/12/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Intermediate correction

4/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

3/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

1/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND. A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

1/6/06 UPTREND #59: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (up) 1.3% & Vol (up) 20%.).

1/5/06 UPTREND #58: A third ..up.. day for the Nasdaq reinforces the uptrend.

1/4/06 UPTREND #57: A strong ..up.. day for the Nasdaq (+0.9% volume 20% above MA).

1/3/06 UPTREND #56: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (up) 1.7% & Vol (up) 26%.)

12/30 UPTREND #55: Nasdaq down 0.6% on increased but light volume.

12/29 UPTREND #54: Nasdaq down 0.5% on unchanged, light volume.

12/28 UPTREND #53: Nasdaq ..up.. slightly on light volume between the year-end holidays.

12/27 UPTREND #52: A DISTRIBUTION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (Dwn) 1.0% & Volume (up) 29%.)

12//06 PTREND #51: Nasdaq ..up.. slightly on lighter volume before the holiday.

12/22 UPTREND #50: Nasdaq ..up.. 0.7% on 9% decreased volume.

12/21 UPTREND #49: Nasdaq ..up.. 0.4% on 5% decreased volume.

12/20 UPTREND #48: Nasdaq unchanged on unchanged volume.

12/19 UPTREND #47: Nasdaq down 1.3% on lighter volume.

12/16 UPTREND #46: Nasdaq down 0.4% on 33% heavier volume.

12/15 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.1% on heavier volume.

12/14 UPTREND #44: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume

12/13 UPTREND #43: Nasdaq up 0.2% on increased volume.

12/12 UPTREND #42: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume.

12/09 UPTREND #41; Nasdaq up 0.5% on lighter volume (at the Moving Average.)

12/08 UPTREND #40: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT (updated 1/7/2006)

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Additional Accumulation days would continue to confirm the uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend. Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.
MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Monday, January 09, 2006

Market Analysis for January 7, 2006

Green Light: Uptrend Strong, Day 59 .

Best Investing Practices The largest gains are made at the beginning of an uptrend.
HAVE THE COURAGE TO FOLLOW YOUR RULES.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day% Up Since Market Upturn
Nasdaq2306+1.3% +19.9% +42.2%Accumulation +13.8%
S&P5001285+0.9%-1.6%+18.8%Neither +12.3%
DJIA10,959+0.7%-1.6%+18.8%Neither +10.0%

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The economy continues to show signs of growth
  • The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day and 200 -day moving averages
  • The Fed Reserve hints at ending rate increases
  • The 10-day “Leading stock up-to-down” ratio is 1.9
  • The percent of A stocks is 15% of all stocks over $5.
  • The Nasdaq has an Accumulation rating of A-.
  • The S&P 500 & DJIA have Accumulation ratings of B+
Mixed indicators:
  • The Nasdaq has been UP on 7 of the last 10 days
  • There have been TWO 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20 for the NASDAQ
Downtrend indicators:
  • The interest rate yield curve is still inverted.

CONCLUSION:

  • Two Accumulation days in four days confirms the uptrend is moving again


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Look for good stocks breaking out of good bases
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Consider:
  • Celadon (CLDN) , REO 13%, Sponsorship A.
  • C B Richard Ellis (CBG), ROE 26%, sponsorship B, may be 2nd stage base
  • Ceradyn (CRDN) ROE 26% sponsorship B, at 10-wk moving average; may be a buy point.
  • Neoware Systems(NWRE) ROE only 10%
  • Energy Conversion Devices(ENER)Near top of of right side of Cup with Handle. Look for formation of handle. In this market environment breakout at peak of right side could occur without formation of handle or formation may be shortened to less than ideal 2 weeks.


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Accumulation Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 1 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 7 Up 3 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days Neutral indicator: 4, 5 or 6 up and down days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 1.9 Up/Down Ratio (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.1 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.0-1.3 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 30 up to 21 down, a 1.3 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 4
2 5
3 6

Past Market Direction Signals:

10/19/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/16/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/12/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Intermediate correction

4/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

3/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

1/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND. A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

1/6/06 UPTREND #59: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (up) 1.3% & Vol (up) 20%.).

1/5/06 UPTREND #58: A third ..up.. day for the Nasdaq reinforces the uptrend.

1/4/06 UPTREND #57: A strong ..up.. day for the Nasdaq (+0.9% volume 20% above MA).

1/3/06 UPTREND #56: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (up) 1.7% & Vol (up) 26%.)

12/30 UPTREND #55: Nasdaq down 0.6% on increased but light volume.

12/29 UPTREND #54: Nasdaq down 0.5% on unchanged, light volume.

12/28 UPTREND #53: Nasdaq ..up.. slightly on light volume between the year-end holidays.

12/27 UPTREND #52: A DISTRIBUTION DAY for Nasdaq (Price (Dwn) 1.0% & Volume (up) 29%.)

12//06 PTREND #51: Nasdaq ..up.. slightly on lighter volume before the holiday.

12/22 UPTREND #50: Nasdaq ..up.. 0.7% on 9% decreased volume.

12/21 UPTREND #49: Nasdaq ..up.. 0.4% on 5% decreased volume.

12/20 UPTREND #48: Nasdaq unchanged on unchanged volume.

12/19 UPTREND #47: Nasdaq down 1.3% on lighter volume.

12/16 UPTREND #46: Nasdaq down 0.4% on 33% heavier volume.

12/15 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.1% on heavier volume.

12/14 UPTREND #44: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume

12/13 UPTREND #43: Nasdaq up 0.2% on increased volume.

12/12 UPTREND #42: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume.

12/09 UPTREND #41; Nasdaq up 0.5% on lighter volume (at the Moving Average.)

12/08 UPTREND #40: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT (updated 1/7/2006)

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Additional Accumulation days would continue to confirm the uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend. Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Market Analysis for December 19, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend Very Strong, Day 47 .

Best Investing Practices The biggest difference between exceptional institutional investors and the rest of us: they have written rules and follow them.
HAVE THE COURAGE TO FOLLOW YOUR RULES.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day% Up Since Market Upturn
Nasdaq2223-1.3% -27.1% +2.5%Niether+9.7%
S&P5001260-0.6%+20.9%+6.3%Neither +10.1%
DJIA10,837-0.4%+20.9%+6.3%Neither +8.8%

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The economy continues to show signs of growth
  • The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day and 200 -day moving averages
  • The Fed Reserve hints at ending rate increases
Mixed indicators:
  • The Nasdaq has been UP on 4 of the last 10 days
  • There have been one 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20 for the NASDAQ
Downtrend indicators:
  • The10-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 0.8
  • The20-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 1.1

CONCLUSION:

  • The markets fell on lighter volume. The uptrend continues as this “resting period” extends. The good news: the economy is growing and the interest rate increases may end soon. There is little reason to think the markets have topped.


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Look for good stocks breaking out of good bases
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Consider:
  • Celadon (CLDN) , REO 13%, Sponsorship A.
  • C B Richard Ellis (CBG), ROE 26%, sponsorship B, may be 2nd stage base
  • Ceradyn (CRDN) ROE 26% sponsorship B, at 10-wk moving average; may be a buy point.
  • Neoware Systems(NWRE) ROE only 10%


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Niether Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 1 ACC / 1 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 4 Up 6 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days Neutral indicator: 4, 5 or 6 up and down days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 61Up / 48 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.1 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.0-1.3 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 30 up to 21 down, a 1.3 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 4
2 5
3 6

Past Market Direction Signals:

10/19/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/16/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/12/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Intermediate correction

4/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

3/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

1/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND. A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

12/16 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.4% on heavier volume.

12/15 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.1% on heavier volume.

12/14 UPTREND #44: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume

12/13 UPTREND #43: Nasdaq up 0.2% on increased volume.

12/12 UPTREND #42: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume.

12/09 UPTREND #41; Nasdaq up 0.5% on lighter volume (at the Moving Average.)

12/08 UPTREND #40: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume.

12/07 UPTREND #39: Nasdaq down 0.4% on lighter volume.

12/06 UPTREND #38: Nasdaq up 0.1% on heavier volume

12/05 UPTREND #37: Nasdaq down on lighter volume.

12/02 UPTREND #36: Nasdaq up 0.3% on lighter volume

12/01 UPTREND #35: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (P é 1.5% & V é 7%.)

11/30 UPTREND #34: Nasdaq flat on heavier volume (15% over average.)

11/29 UPTREND #33: Nasdaq down 0.3% on moderate volume.

11/28 UPTREND #32: Nasdaq down 1.0% on heavier volume – a DISTRIBUTION DAY

11/25 UPTREND #31: Nasdaq up 0.1% on extremely light volume--Friday after Thanksgiving.

11/23 UPTREND #30: Nasdaq up 0.3% on lighter volume before Thanksgiving.

11/22 UPTREND #29: Nasdaq up 0.5% on 12% higher volume, 9% above average volume.

11/21 UPTREND #28: Nasdaq up 0.7% on lighter volume— Thanksgiving week effect?

11/18 UPTREND #27: Nasdaq up 0.3% on 9% higher volume

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Additional Accumulation days would re-confirm the uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend. Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Market Analysis for December ,16 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #46.

Best Investing Practices Always protect your portfolio with a 7% stop loss.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day% Up Since Market Upturn
Nasdaq2252-.4% +33.0% +41.1%Niether+11.2%
S&P5001267-0.3%+28.8%+34.5%Neither +10.7%
DJIA10,876-0.1%+28.8%+34.5%Neither +9.2%

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The 10-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio 2.0.
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average.
Mixed indicators:
  • Five of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; five days were up
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “D.”
  • The20-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 0.98

CONCLUSION:

  • Although the markets have gone sideways for two weeks, the uptrend continues. It is not surprising that the markets are taking a breather after rising very aggressively for 6 weeks after hitting the market bottom on October 13.


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Look for good stocks breaking out of good bases
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Consider:
  • Celadon (CLDN) , REO 13%, Sponsorship A.
  • C B Richard Ellis (CBG), ROE 26%, sponsorship B, may be 2nd stage base
  • Ceradyn (CRDN) ROE 26% sponsorship B, at 10-wk moving average; may be a buy point.
  • Neoware Systems(NWRE) ROE only 10%


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Niether Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 1 ACC / 1 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 4 Up 6 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 61Up / 48 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.3 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 30 up to 21 down, a 1.3 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 4
2 5
3 6

Past Market Direction Signals:

10/19/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq

10/12/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Intermediate correction

4/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

3/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

1/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND. A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

12/16 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.4% on heavier volume.

12/15 UPTREND #45: Nasdaq down 0.1% on heavier volume.

12/14 UPTREND #44: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume

12/13 UPTREND #43: Nasdaq up 0.2% on increased volume.

12/12 UPTREND #42: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume.

12/09 UPTREND #41; Nasdaq up 0.5% on lighter volume (at the Moving Average.)

12/08 UPTREND #40: Nasdaq down 0.2% on 10% heavier volume.

12/07 UPTREND #39: Nasdaq down 0.4% on lighter volume.

12/06 UPTREND #38: Nasdaq up 0.1% on heavier volume

12/05 UPTREND #37: Nasdaq down on lighter volume.

12/02 UPTREND #36: Nasdaq up 0.3% on lighter volume

12/01 UPTREND #35: An ACCUMULATION DAY for Nasdaq (P é 1.5% & V é 7%.)

11/30 UPTREND #34: Nasdaq flat on heavier volume (15% over average.)

11/29 UPTREND #33: Nasdaq down 0.3% on moderate volume.

11/28 UPTREND #32: Nasdaq down 1.0% on heavier volume – a DISTRIBUTION DAY

11/25 UPTREND #31: Nasdaq up 0.1% on extremely light volume--Friday after Thanksgiving.

11/23 UPTREND #30: Nasdaq up 0.3% on lighter volume before Thanksgiving.

11/22 UPTREND #29: Nasdaq up 0.5% on 12% higher volume, 9% above average volume.

11/21 UPTREND #28: Nasdaq up 0.7% on lighter volume— Thanksgiving week effect?

11/18 UPTREND #27: Nasdaq up 0.3% on 9% higher volume

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Additional Accumulation days would re-confirm the uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend. Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Friday, October 21, 2005

Market Analysis for October 20, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #2.

Best Investing Practices Tune your watch list of top stocks.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2068-1.1% -4.3% +15.3%Niether
S&P5001178-1.5%-4.2%+25.9%Neither
DJIA10,281-1.3%-4.2%+25.9%Neither

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The 10-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio 2.0.
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average.
Mixed indicators:
  • Five of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; five days were up
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “D.”
  • The20-day “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 0.98

CONCLUSION:

  • Although the day was down for all the major indexes, the uptrend has not been broken and continues


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Look for good stocks breaking out of good bases
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Niether Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule. It was a distribution day for the S&P500

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 1 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 5 Up 5 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 67Up / 54 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 0.9 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 34 up to 17 down, a 2.0 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 4
2 5
3 6

Last Market Direction Signals:

10/19/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Follow-through day for Nasdaq.

10/12/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Intermediate correction.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

10/20 UPTREND #2: The Nasdaq fell 1.1% on lower volume

10/19 UPTREND #1: A FOLLOW-THROUGH day for Nasdaq. Price up 1.7%, Volume up 29%

10/18 DOWNTREND: 4th day of ATTEMPTED RALLY. Nasdaq down 0.7% on higher volume. DISTIRBUTION day for the S&P500.

10/17 DOWNTREND: Nasdaq up 0.3% on lighter volume

10/14 DOWNTREND CONFIRMED: Nasdaq up 0.9% but on light volume

10/13 DOWNTREND CONFIRMED: Nasdaq up 0.5% on lighter volume

10/12 Uptrend is stalled. Nasdaq had DISTRIBUTION day

10/11 UPTREND #115: Nasdaq fell another .9% on higher volume

10/10 UPTREND #114: A down day for major indexes on lighter volume for Nasdaq (Columbus day holiday).

10/07 UPTREND #113: Nasdaq up .3%

10/06 UPTREND #112: Nasdaq falls 0.9% on increased volume.

10/05 UPTREND #111: Nasdaq losses 0.9% on increased volume

10/04 UPTREND #110: A distribution day for the S&P500. Almost for the Nasdaq.

10/03 UPTREND #109: A mild up day on slightly increased volume for the Nasdaq.

09/30 UPTREND #108: An up day for the Nasdaq on average volume.

09/29 UPTREND #107: An accumulation day for the Nasdaq and almost for other indexes

09/28 UPTREND #106: Small movements on slightly above-average volume, again

09/27 UPTREND #105: Small movements on average volume, again

09/26 UPTREND #104: Small movements on average volume

09/23 UPTREND #103: Small up movement on all major indexes

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: I will buy the QQQQs tomorrow if the day shows upward movement.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: The Uptrend would be ended if the Nasdaq drops below the prior low of 2025.58. Distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Market Analysis for September 29, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #107.

Best Investing Practices During times of extended market weakness, wait to invest.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2141+1.2% +4.4% +15.7%Accumulation
S&P5001228+0.9%+2.6%+9.7%Neither
DJIA10,553+0.8%+2.6%+9.7%Neither

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The Nasdaq is up 13% in the 21 weeks of this rally
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average and is approaching the 50-day M.A
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “B-”.
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and no 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Mixed indicators:
  • Five of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; five days were up
  • The “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 1.2. The 5-day ratio is 1.5
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq is 4% below the high on 8/2.

CONCLUSION:

  • Thursday was a powerful up day. The uptrend has resumed


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Use your watch list to start investing. Buy Carefully.
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Accumulation Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 0 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 5 Up 5 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 67Up / 54 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.2 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 32 up to 22 down, a 1.5 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 Gold 4 Insurance
2 Health Care 5 Jr. Growth
3 Defense 6 NYSE Composite

Last Market Direction Signals:

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

09/29 UPTREND #107: An accumulation day for the Nasdaq and almost for other indexes

09/28 UPTREND #106: Small movements on slightly above-average volume, again

09/27 UPTREND #105: Small movements on average volume, again

09/26 UPTREND #104: Small movements on average volume

09/23 UPTREND #103: Small up movement on all major indexes

09/22 UPTREND #102: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume..

09/21 UPTREND #101: A distribution day for the DJIA. Down days for Nasdaq & S&P500.

09/20 UPTREND #100: The major indexes fell. Nasdaq and DJIA had DISTIRBUTION days

09/19 UPTREND #99: The major indexes fell moderately before the Fed announcement 9/20

09/16 UPTREND #98: The major indexes rose almost a point on huge volume.

09/15 UPTREND #97: The indexes barely moved Thursday on small increases in volume.

09/14 UPTREND #96: All major indexes were down on lower volume

09/13 UPTREND #95: Nasdaq fell .5% on slightly higher volume still.

09/12 UPTREND #94: Nasdaq rose 0.3% on higher volume.

09/09 UPTREND #93: All major indexes were up on higher volume.

09/08 UPTREND #92: All major indexes were down slightly. Only the Nasdaq had higher volume.

09/07 UPTREND #91: All major indexes were up on increased volume.

09/06 UPTREND #90: All major indexes had ACCUMULATION days.

09/02 UPTREND #89: Nasdaq fell 0.3% on very low volume, the day before the holiday weekend.

09/01 UPTREND #88: Nasdaq fell 0.2%, volume lower but still above 50-day MA.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Looking for moreaccumulation and strong up days, indicating renewed strength to the NASDAQ uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

I am in fully invested in the QQQQs. My stops are in.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN!

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Friday, September 23, 2005

Pre-open moves

From MarketWatch: U.S. stocks look set for a slightly stronger start as Hurricane Rita weakens somewhat, crude and gold prices abate and the dollar regains lost ground, though Oracle earnings and Alcoa's profit warning could dampen sentiment

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Market Analysis for September 22, 2005

Yellow Light: Uptrend day #102.

Best Investing Practices Allocate time to track the market each day.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2111-0.2% -3.6% +10.7%Neither
S&P5001215+.04%-5.0%+26.4%Neither
DJIA10,422+0.4%-5.0%+26.4%Neither

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The Nasdaq is up 12% in the 20 weeks of this rally
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Mixed indicators:
  • Five of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; five days were up
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “C”.
  • The “Leading stock up” to “down” ratio is 1.4. The 5-day ratio is 1.1
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq is 5% below the high on 8/2.

CONCLUSION:

  • The uptrend has resumed but take note of the distribution day. Buy only the best of your stock screen or postpone buying until more positive indications for the uptrend.


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Use your watch list to start investing.
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Worth your further attention: CWTR, ATLS, MTL, CERN, AMGN, SFCC. Do your own homework. Never buy a stock based solely on someone's recommendation! And I mean, no one's recommendation!


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Neither Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 0 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 4 Up 6 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 76Up / 42 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.8 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 40 up to 25 down, a 1.6 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 Health Care 4 Insurance
2 Gold 5 Jr. Growth
3 Defense 6 NYSE Composite

Last Market Direction Signals:

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

09/22 UPTREND #102: Nasdaq up 0.2% on lighter volume..

09/21 UPTREND #101: A distribution day for the DJIA. Down days for Nasdaq & S&P500.

09/20 UPTREND #100: The major indexes fell. Nasdaq and DJIA had DISTIRBUTION days

09/19 UPTREND #99: The major indexes fell moderately before the Fed announcement 9/20

09/16 UPTREND #98: The major indexes rose almost a point on huge volume.

09/15 UPTREND #97: The indexes barely moved Thursday on small increases in volume.

09/14 UPTREND #96: All major indexes were down on lower volume

09/13 UPTREND #95: Nasdaq fell .5% on slightly higher volume still.

09/12 UPTREND #94: Nasdaq rose 0.3% on higher volume.

09/09 UPTREND #93: All major indexes were up on higher volume.

09/08 UPTREND #92: All major indexes were down slightly. Only the Nasdaq had higher volume.

09/07 UPTREND #91: All major indexes were up on increased volume.

09/06 UPTREND #90: All major indexes had ACCUMULATION days.

09/02 UPTREND #89: Nasdaq fell 0.3% on very low volume, the day before the holiday weekend.

09/01 UPTREND #88: Nasdaq fell 0.2%, volume lower but still above 50-day MA.

08/31 UPTREND #87: Nasdaq & S&P500 had ACCUMULATION days

08/30 UPTREND #86: Nasdaq fell 0.4% on 18% more volume

08/29 UPTREND #85: Nasdaq rose 0.8% to the 50-day MA on slightly lower volume

08/26 UPTREND #84: Nasdaq fell below the 50-day MA on lower volume

08/25 UPTREND #83: Nasdaq rose to just above its 50-day moving average on low volume.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Looking for moreaccumulation days, adding strength to the NASDAQ uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

I am in fully invested in the QQQQs. My stops are in.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN! They should have been as soon as you had a confirmation on your buy order! Watch closely for addtional distribution days in the next 19. DON'T BE GREEDY! Stocks that are going up in price on LOWER volume (lower than the 50 day moving average volume) may be topping!

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Thursday, September 22, 2005

Market Analysis for September 21, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #101.

Best Investing Practices Allocate time to track the market each day.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2107-1.2% +1.3% +20.8%Distribution
S&P5001210-0.9%+13.9%+33.6%Niether
DJIA10,378-1.0%+13.9%+33.6%Distribution

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The Nasdaq is up 11% in the 20 weeks of this rally
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average
  • The “Leading stock up” to “down” is 1.5. The 5-day ratio is 1.3.
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and one 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Mixed indicators:
  • Six of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; four were up.
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “C”.
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq is 5% below the high on 8/2.

CONCLUSION:

  • The uptrend has resumed but take note of the distribution day. Buy only the best of your stock screen or postpone buying until more positive indications for the uptrend.


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Use your watch list to start investing.
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Worth your further attention: CWTR, ATLS, MTL, CERN, AMGN, SFCC. Do your own homework. Never buy a stock based solely on someone's recommendation! And I mean, no one's recommendation!


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Distribution Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 0 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 4 Up 6 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 76Up / 42 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.8 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 40 up to 25 down, a 1.6 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 Health Care 4 Insurance
2 Gold 5 Jr. Growth
3 Defense 6 NYSE Composite

Last Market Direction Signals:

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

09/20 UPTREND #100: The major indexes fell. Nasdaq and DJIA had DISTIRBUTION days

09/19 UPTREND #99: The major indexes fell moderately before the Fed announcement 9/20

09/16 UPTREND #98: The major indexes rose almost a point on huge volume.

09/15 UPTREND #97: The indexes barely moved Thursday on small increases in volume.

09/14 UPTREND #96: All major indexes were down on lower volume

09/13 UPTREND #95: Nasdaq fell .5% on slightly higher volume still.

09/12 UPTREND #94: Nasdaq rose 0.3% on higher volume.

09/09 UPTREND #93: All major indexes were up on higher volume.

09/08 UPTREND #92: All major indexes were down slightly. Only the Nasdaq had higher volume.

09/07 UPTREND #91: All major indexes were up on increased volume.

09/06 UPTREND #90: All major indexes had ACCUMULATION days.

09/02 UPTREND #89: Nasdaq fell 0.3% on very low volume, the day before the holiday weekend.

09/01 UPTREND #88: Nasdaq fell 0.2%, volume lower but still above 50-day MA.

08/31 UPTREND #87: Nasdaq & S&P500 had ACCUMULATION days

08/30 UPTREND #86: Nasdaq fell 0.4% on 18% more volume

08/29 UPTREND #85: Nasdaq rose 0.8% to the 50-day MA on slightly lower volume

08/26 UPTREND #84: Nasdaq fell below the 50-day MA on lower volume

08/25 UPTREND #83: Nasdaq rose to just above its 50-day moving average on low volume.

08/24 UPTREND #82: Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average for 1st time

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Looking for moreaccumulation days, adding strength to the NASDAQ uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

I am in fully invested in the QQQQs. My stops are in.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN! They should have been as soon as you had a confirmation on your buy order! Watch closely for addtional distribution days in the next 19. DON'T BE GREEDY! Stocks that are going up in price on LOWER volume (lower than the 50 day moving average volume) may be topping!

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Wednesday, September 21, 2005

My Extreme Disappointment with President Bush!

Dear Friends,

I am really disappointed in President Bush!

First and foremost he failed to stop the hurricane Katrina before it hit the Gulf Coast. Even worse, he should have stopped it before it first hit Southern Florida. Since he failed to take this first action, one would have expected that he should have, as a second thought, moved the entire states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana to central Texas before Katrina came ashore.

Next, he failed to keep the levees in New Orleans from breaking. You would think that our Commander in Chief would have sent Rumsfeld or at least someone in authority to put his or her finger in the dike. Here again, President Bush should have known that the levees wouldn't hold. Remember, he has the best intelligence organization in the world.

If that wasn't bad enough, he failed to assemble the national Guard on a minute's notice. Aren't they, after all, the present day "Minutemen?"

I know that it took God 6 days to do His work but the leader of the free world should have been able to beat His time. (Actually it took 6 days after the hurricane to get things stabilized so maybe that's par for the course.) Remember, he had experience when he responded to the tsunami victims. Didn't it take several weeks of continuing rescue operations to stabilize that area? With that training, he should have had everyone sitting in planes with the engines running at the end of the runways before the hurricane struck. As a matter of fact he should keep them all at that level all the time because you can never tell when there might be an emergency. Bush also showed his careless disregard for property damage by concentrating efforts in the flooded areas where people were trapped. By all rights he should have been primarily concerned about getting power back on to the casinos along the Gulf Coast. After all, which is more important--a few peoples' lives, or preserving the government's income from gambling sources?

What blows my mind is how President Bush could have reasonably expected people to take any responsibility for themselves. After all, with only a few days notice how could you expect that anyone would take the time to fill up a few jugs of water and stash a few cans of food just because a category 5 hurricane was headed their way? Besides FEMA's suggestion of having 4 days of water and food is just a suggestion. It isn't mandatory.

Bush also failed by expecting local officials to take on any responsibility. After all, isn't it the present Federal Government's responsibility to provide everyone with everything that our ancestors use to do for themselves?

Based on all of the above it is clear that President Bush and his administration are the only possible ones to blame. This calls for a full investigation by all of those totally blameless so that they may reap as much political gain from this tragedy as is possible.

In God We Trust

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Market Analysis for September 20, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #100.

Best Investing Practices


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2131-0.6% +26.0% +19.8%Niether
S&P5001221-0.8%+9.1%+18.3%Niether
DJIA10,482-0.7%+9.1%+18.3%Niether

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The Nasdaq is up 14% in the 20 weeks of this rally
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “B".
  • The “Leading stock up” to “down” is 2.2. The 5-day ratio is 2.0.
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and no 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Mixed indicators:
  • Six of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; four were up.
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq is 4% below the high on 8/2.

CONCLUSION:

  • The uptrend has resumed


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Use your watch list to start investing.
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Worth your further attention: CWTR, ATLS, MTL, CERN, AMGN, SFCC. Do your own homework. Never buy a stock based solely on someone's recommendation! And I mean, no one's recommendation!


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Neither Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 0 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 4 Up 6 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 76Up / 42 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 1.8 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 40 up to 25 down, a 1.6 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 Health Care 4 Insurance
2 Gold 5 Jr. Growth
3 Defense 6 NYSE Composite

Last Market Direction Signals:

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

09/19 UPTREND #99: The major indexes fell moderately before the Fed announcement 9/20

09/16 UPTREND #98: The major indexes rose almost a point on huge volume.

09/15 UPTREND #97: The indexes barely moved Thursday on small increases in volume.

09/14 UPTREND #96: All major indexes were down on lower volume

09/13 UPTREND #95: Nasdaq fell .5% on slightly higher volume still.

09/12 UPTREND #94: Nasdaq rose 0.3% on higher volume.

09/09 UPTREND #93: All major indexes were up on higher volume.

09/08 UPTREND #92: All major indexes were down slightly. Only the Nasdaq had higher volume.

09/07 UPTREND #91: All major indexes were up on increased volume.

09/06 UPTREND #90: All major indexes had ACCUMULATION days.

09/02 UPTREND #89: Nasdaq fell 0.3% on very low volume, the day before the holiday weekend.

09/01 UPTREND #88: Nasdaq fell 0.2%, volume lower but still above 50-day MA.

08/31 UPTREND #87: Nasdaq & S&P500 had ACCUMULATION days

08/30 UPTREND #86: Nasdaq fell 0.4% on 18% more volume

08/29 UPTREND #85: Nasdaq rose 0.8% to the 50-day MA on slightly lower volume

08/26 UPTREND #84: Nasdaq fell below the 50-day MA on lower volume

08/25 UPTREND #83: Nasdaq rose to just above its 50-day moving average on low volume.

08/24 UPTREND #82: Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average for 1st time

08/23 UPTREND #81: Nasdaq dipped below the 50-day moving average but closed above.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Looking for moreaccumulation days, adding strength to the NASDAQ uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

I am in fully invested in the QQQQs. My stops are in.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN! They should have been as soon as you had a confirmation on your buy order! Watch closely for addtional distribution days in the next 19. DON'T BE GREEDY! Stocks that are going up in price on LOWER volume (lower than the 50 day moving average volume) may be topping!

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Enter one or more ticker symbols, or you may look up the symbol by company name.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Market Analysis for September 19, 2005

Green Light: Uptrend day #99.

Best Investing Practices Get into the uptrend early when most of the money is made the fastest.


Index Index CloseIndex ChangeVol ChangeVol Abv/Blw 50day AvgAccum/Dist Day
Nasdaq2145-0.7% -37.0% -4.6%Niether
S&P5001231-0.6%-38.0%+8.8%Niether
DJIA10,558-0.8%-38.0%+8.8%Niether

SUMMARY:

Uptrend indicators:

  • The Nasdaq is up 14% in the 19 weeks of this rally
  • The Nasdaq closed above 200-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is “B".
  • The “Leading stock up” to “down” is 2.2. The 5-day ratio is 2.0.
  • There have been two 1%-1% Accumulation days and no 1%-1% Distribution day in the last 20
Mixed indicators:
  • Five of the last ten days were down for the Nasdaq; five were up.
Downtrend indicators:
  • The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average
  • The Nasdaq is 3% below the high on 8/2.

CONCLUSION:

  • The uptrend has resumed


WHAT TO CONSIDER NOW:

  • Use your watch list to start investing.
  • Be sure your 7% stops are in.
  • Worth your further attention: CWTR, ATLS, MTL, CERN, AMGN, SFCC. Do your own homework. Never buy a stock based solely on someone's recommendation! And I mean, no one's recommendation!


Type of Day for Nasdaq (Accumulation, Distribution or Neither): Neither Using the 1% movement and 1% volume increase rule.

Accumulation / Distribution Momentum: 2 ACC / 0 DIST In the last 20 days, this is the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days using the 1%/1% rules.

Count of Up and Down Days : 5 Up 5 Down This count is the number of up and down days for the Nasdaq in the last 10 days

Leaders’ Volume Action Momentum: 78Up / 36 Down (See Acc/Dist Ratings of 6000 Stocks for additional information.) A 2.2 to 1 indicator (UP to DOWN ratio) for the last 10 days. This indicator is biased to the upside because it only looks at the recent top performers, 1.2 is a neutral number, 1.0 is negative and means market leadership is changing. Past leaders are not leading now. The five-day summary counters are 42 up to 21 down, a 2.0 to 1 ratio.


I usually pick stocks from the top 25% of 196 industry groups.
Top Performing Market Sectors
1 Health Care 4 Insurance
2 Gold 5 Jr. Growth
3 Defense 6 NYSE Composite

Last Market Direction Signals:

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.

04/21/05 MARKET IN UPTREND NYSE and S&P600 had follow-through days. Another follow-through on 5/4. The Nasdaq followed-through on April 29.

03/18/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND Time to exit the QQQQs. The Nasdaq fell below the first day of the last attempted rally on January 24.

02/04/05 MARKET IN UPTREND Day 9 of the rally brought CLEAR ACCUMULATION day for S&P500 and DJIA. Although the price and volume action don’t quite equal the definition of a follow-through day, if you look at the last 9 days, The new uptrend has clearly BEGUN.

01/11/05 MARKET IN DOWNTREND. A 4th distribution day in the last 20, plus 8 down days in the last ten signal a market top. Time to sell the QQQQs and go to cash.

8/18/03 MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND A 2% rise in Nasdaq qualifies as a weak FOLLOW-THROUGH day. Time to buy the QQQs.


20 Days of Market Activity

09/19 UPTREND #99: The major indexes fell moderately before the Fed announcement 9/20

09/16 UPTREND #98: The major indexes rose almost a point on huge volume.

09/15 UPTREND #97: The indexes barely moved Thursday on small increases in volume.

09/14 UPTREND #96: All major indexes were down on lower volume

09/13 UPTREND #95: Nasdaq fell .5% on slightly higher volume still.

09/12 UPTREND #94: Nasdaq rose 0.3% on higher volume.

09/09 UPTREND #93: All major indexes were up on higher volume.

09/08 UPTREND #92: All major indexes were down slightly. Only the Nasdaq had higher volume.

09/07 UPTREND #91: All major indexes were up on increased volume.

09/06 UPTREND #90: All major indexes had ACCUMULATION days.

09/02 UPTREND #89: Nasdaq fell 0.3% on very low volume, the day before the holiday weekend.

09/01 UPTREND #88: Nasdaq fell 0.2%, volume lower but still above 50-day MA.

08/31 UPTREND #87: Nasdaq & S&P500 had ACCUMULATION days

08/30 UPTREND #86: Nasdaq fell 0.4% on 18% more volume

08/29 UPTREND #85: Nasdaq rose 0.8% to the 50-day MA on slightly lower volume

08/26 UPTREND #84: Nasdaq fell below the 50-day MA on lower volume

08/25 UPTREND #83: Nasdaq rose to just above its 50-day moving average on low volume.

08/24 UPTREND #82: Nasdaq closed below the 50-day moving average for 1st time

08/23 UPTREND #81: Nasdaq dipped below the 50-day moving average but closed above.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT

  • UPTREND STRENGTH INDICATORS: Looking for moreaccumulation days, adding strength to the NASDAQ uptrend.
  • DOWNTREND INDICATOR: Additional distribution days would show weakness in this uptrend.

I am in fully invested in the QQQQs. My stops are in.

MAKE SURE YOUR STOPS ARE IN! They should have been as soon as you had a confirmation on your buy order! Watch closely for addtional distribution days in the next 19. DON'T BE GREEDY! Stocks that are going up in price on LOWER volume (lower than the 50 day moving average volume) may be topping!

Stock Quotes from Yahoo!

Enter one or more ticker symbols, or you may look up the symbol by company name.